Bitcoin Treasury companies are experiencing an abrupt collapse in value: Stock prices have plunged from solid premiums to deep discounts, and close to 40 percent of the largest players are now trading below the value of their Bitcoin holdings (NAV).
The largest Bitcoin Treasury companies, known as DATCOs, now collectively hold over 1 million BTC -- roughly 4 percent of the total supply -- after aggressive accumulation through 2025, led by U.S. companies under the new Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) fair value rules.
Despite the large holdings, share values have collapsed from previous premiums to deep discounts against underlying assets, with nearly 40% now trading below net asset value (NAV)
The situation in many ways challenges the entire Treasury model.
The major decline has occurred after Bitcoin corrected from its October 2025 peak of roughly $126,000 to around $89,000—90,000 in early January 2026, but also started before Bitcoin reached its peak. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) is the clearest example of this crisis, but companies such as MARA Holdings, Metaplanet and Twenty One Capital are now struggling with dilution, unrealized losses and the risk of forced sales.
Nearly 200 listed companies now collectively hold over 1 million BTC worth approximately US$96 billion. According to tracking services, Strategy (MSTR) ranks at the top with 671,268—672,497 BTC (~59—60 billion USD at today's price), followed by MARA Holdings (53,250+ BTC), Twenty One Capital (XXI) with 43,514 BTC, Metaplanet (35,102 BTC, bought at an average of around 102,000 USD), and Bitcoin Standard Treasury (30,021 BTC).
Still, at least 37 of the 100 largest DATCOs traded below NAV in early January 2026, representing close to 40% of major treasury holdings. Strategy's market capitalization of around $45—46 billion is several billion below their BTC holdings of $59-60 billion, with shares trading at a 17—21% discount (1.26x MNAV — the lowest since March 2024). Metaplanet's Japanese share rally has fallen dramatically from a 237 per cent premium in July 2025 to a 10 per cent discount in early 2026, while mining companies such as MARA are experiencing similar pressures with holdings far underwater. Twenty One Capital debuted on the NYSE in December 2025 with a sharp 20% first-day drop and has since traded below expectations.
Several factors exacerbate the crisis: Strategy is at risk of being excluded from the MSCI index, with a decision deadline of January 15, 2026. JPMorgan warns that this could trigger up to US$8.8 billion in forced sales from institutional funds that follow the index. CEO Phong Le has previously indicated possible sales if Strategy falls below 1x MNAv or liquidity tightens, with the risk of breach of contract. The company has US$1.4 billion in cash reserves, enough to cover roughly 21 months of preference dividends, but the dilution danger is increasing with plans to raise an additional US$11 billion through issues.
Overleveraged DATCOs pumped tens of billions into Bitcoin during 2025, but now face reduced liquidity (order depth in the Bitcoin market has dropped significantly) and breach of loan terms. Macro analyst Alex Kruger terms the model as “an abomination”, comparing the situation to the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust collapse in 2020, when GBTC went from a 40% premium to a 50% discount. The reflexive premium loops have now broken down; issues only lead to stock dilution without creating value.
Metaplanet continues aggressive accumulation and purchased 4,279 BTC for approximately $450 million at the end of December 2025, bringing its total holdings to 35,102 BTC with an average price of $102,000 per coin. Despite Bitcoin's recent rise to around US$90,000, the company is facing unrealized losses and share pressure, with the stock down to JPY 405 after peaking at JPY 1,895 in June 2025.
MARA Holdings (formerly Marathon Digital) traded at US$8.98 in early January 2026 — significantly lower than its 2025 peaks. With 53,250+ BTC and plans for further purchases through a $2 billion share sale, the company faces increasing dilution and post-purchase losses near peak levels.
The situation tests in many ways the entire DATCO model. Sites like BitcoinTreasuries.net and CoinMarketCap still show U.S. and Japanese dominance, but the sharp discounts point toward possible consolidation. Several experts believe most Bitcoin Treasury companies will not survive 2026. Vincent Chok, CEO of First Digital, stresses that successful BTC Treasury structures must “have responsible capital allocation, operational liquidity and see Bitcoin as just one part of a broader financial strategy.” He also points out the investor flight towards crypto-ETFs that provide regulated exposure without the structural risks.
Katherine Dowling, president of Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company, expects that the strongest digital treasury companies will help consolidate the industry through acquisitions of weaker players in 2026. Analysts now call the period “a phase in which only disciplined structures and real business operations will survive”.
For institutional adoption, the crisis weakens confidence, as about 60% of companies have higher purchase costs than the current BTC market. Only one BTC Treasury company, French The Blockchain Group, beat the S&P 500 in 2025. Still, the FASB rules contribute to greater transparency, and the long-term outcome will depend on whether companies can show sustainable revenue models beyond mere Bitcoin accumulation.
Is the premium era over? Companies trading below 1.0x MNAv can no longer issue shares to buy more Bitcoin without diluting shareholders — thus breaking the whole strategy of endless acquisitions. As 2026 progresses, significant consolidation is expected, and only the most disciplined operators will be able to survive.
