Bitcoin has traded between $60,000 and $80,000 for six months, with trading volumes at three-year lows. K33 and CoinShares both argue that current levels are an attractive place to buy, and that the bottom may already be in.
Heads of research Vetle Andreas Lunde at K33 Research (left), James Butterfill at CoinShares (centre) and Mads Eberhardt at Firi (right).
Bitcoin trades at $64,372, up one percent on the week and flat over the past month. It has stayed between $60,000 and $80,000 since February and sits roughly 50 percent below its October 2025 peak of $126,296. Standing still is not the same as weakness: Eberhardt pointed out earlier in August that bitcoin actually outperformed tech stocks through July, and both Lunde and Butterfill see current levels as an attractive place to buy.
The passivity runs through every part of the market, according to K33 Research. The 30-day average volume in BTCUSDT perpetuals on Binance and Bybit has fallen to $10.8bn, the lowest since 2023. Only five percent of all days since January 2021 have seen lower volumes. Spot volume is down to $1.8bn a day, an 18 percent drop over the week and the lowest weekly average since February 2024.
Volatility follows the same pattern. Bitcoin's seven-day volatility fell to 0.6 percent on Sunday, the lowest reading since Christmas 2025. Thin volumes make for a slow market, which in turn gives traders little reason to participate – a self-reinforcing hibernation, as K33 puts it.
Firi noted on 7 August that the crypto market held up better than tech stocks through July. The Nasdaq-100 fell 6.9 percent in a month marked by geopolitical tension and turmoil around the forced sales from AI hedge fund Situational Awareness LP. Bitcoin rose 7.4 percent over the same period, Ethereum 18.6 percent. The equity market turbulence spilled over into crypto only to a limited and temporary degree, according to Firi.
The gain needs to be seen against a weak first half. Entering July, bitcoin was down 33.1 percent year to date. Firi also recorded net inflows of $172.8m into US bitcoin ETFs in July, following outflows in May and June, but describes the amounts as modest compared with the preceding outflows.
K33 separates the current pattern from the bear markets of 2014, 2018 and 2022, when bitcoin steadily set lower lows. The price hit a 50 percent drawdown from its peak on 5 February and has stayed near that level since. K33 reads this as indifference rather than a deteriorating trend.
Sellers have had ample time and reason to exit, K33 notes. On-chain, holdings are moving from long-term to short-term holders and back into new long-term holders, which the firm reads as sell-side saturation. Buyers are holding back as long as there are no signs of a regime change. K33 describes current levels as a very appealing area to allocate to bitcoin.
At the same time, open interest in bitcoin perpetuals remains elevated. From 1 June to 11 August it averaged 300,080 bitcoin, above the 2026 average of 288,000 and the 282,000 average across 2025 and 2026. Open interest is the sum of outstanding positions in the derivatives market, and a high level means more traders are using borrowed money.
The combination of high leverage and thin trading leaves the market exposed. Small moves can trigger forced liquidations of leveraged positions, which in turn amplify the move. K33 points to the risk of sharp swings in either direction. Activity is so low that only minor shifts in positioning are needed to swing funding rates.
Butterfill deliberately avoids a specific price target because the range of possible outcomes is too broad. His base case is nonetheless that bitcoin ends the year above current levels, and that the lows between March and June may have marked the cycle bottom.
– To me, the exact magnitude of a potential rally matters less than the risk-reward ratio. It would take a new negative catalyst to trigger another sharp decline. Conversely, for prices to rise, current conditions may only need to hold steady, Butterfill says.
He points to four factors supporting the view: historically attractive valuations, reset positioning after the pullback, a return to positive ETF inflows, and the prospect of less restrictive US monetary policy. US spot ETFs recently saw renewed inflows after eight straight weeks of net outflows. If the Federal Reserve refrains from further rate hikes, he argues bitcoin stands to benefit as an interest-rate-sensitive asset, since lower real yields tend to boost the appeal of scarce, growth-oriented assets.
The US Clarity Act, which would establish which regulators oversee which digital assets, was pushed past the August recess in Congress. Disagreements over ethics, illicit finance and the Senate Agriculture Committee's market structure provisions stalled the process. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has set 15 September for a procedural vote, but that only opens the door to debate and does not guarantee the votes needed to pass.
Prediction market Polymarket prices the probability of passage in 2026 at 22 percent. Firi described passage in August as increasingly unlikely after a week with few positive developments. For a market already short of directional impulses, it means another potential catalyst has been pushed further out.
Sources: K33 Research, CoinShares, Firi
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