November 2025 has become an unexpectedly dramatic month for crypto. Bitcoin has now erased much of its 2025 gains. A correction of roughly 30% from recent highs has stirred intense debate. Is it an Old Holder Sell-Off or ‘Calm Before the Storm’?
After a strong first half of the year, high volatility, new risk aversion and shifting investor behaviour have made traders, analysts and long-term owners uncertain. Many questions about the same thing: Are those who have held Bitcoin through several cycles now selling inlarge scale?
At the same time, it is more than ever debated whether Bitcoin's classic 4-year half-life cycle has lost its significance. Some believe the cycle is broken because institutional players dominateand the market structure has become more mature. Others see the recent price drop as a classic “before the storm” moment, where the market consolidates before another bull rally.
The article below reviews the current market situation, the sales behavior of long-term holders (“OG holders”), the heated 4-year cycle debate, possible scenarios ahead, and both global and Nordic sentiment.
As of November 2025, Bitcoin trades in the range of $90,000—$93,000 after a steep decline and has lost nearly a third of its value from peaks above $120,000. This correction parallels broader global market turmoil — stocks, AI-powered technology companies and risky assets have all experienced heavy selling in recent weeks. Crypto markets have not escaped the downturn either.
ETFs, long the single-market driver for Bitcoin, have gained negative net flows during the downturn. The sell-off from major spot Bitcoin ETFs has signaled that institutional appetite has temporarily cooled, contributing to the selling pressure. Some financial media have called this “the biggest outflow of the year.”
The broader crypto markets have also fallen sharply. Global crypto market capitalization has seen rapid fluctuations, with up to one trillion dollars disappearing in a short period of time. This has triggered clearly changed behaviour: risk aversion, flight to liquidity and defensive positions have returned and reminded investors that even the world's largest cryptocurrency is susceptible to macroeconomic shocks.
Still, Bitcoin's ability to sustain support near $90,000 provides some stability. Its growing dominance over the rest of the market suggests that investors still see Bitcoin as a “safe haven” in crypto.
One of November 2025's biggest themes is whether the experienced Bitcoin holders, who have held Bitcoin for years and through many cycles, are now finally selling out.
Evidence of significant sales among long-term holders
On-chain analyses by CryptoQuant, Glassnode and others show that large amounts of Bitcoin with a long “holding time” have actually been moved to exchanges or sold. Key pointsinclude:
Several analysts believe that this wave of selling has “limited” Bitcoin's ability to reach new highs, as selling pressure from the veterans has stalled its recovery.
Although the headlines aredramatic, deeper analysis provides more nuance. Some reviews show:
In other words: Older retainers are selling more than usual, but the notion that “all veterans dump at the same time” is an oversimplification. The market is experiencing a mix of healthy profit hedging, younger investors gearing up and opportunistic redistribution.
For over a decade, Bitcoin has been characterized by a predictable 4-year pattern of halving the block reward, which has created supply shocks, powerful bull markets, and subsequent lows.
But in 2025, more and moreanalysts believe that this rhythm is changing.
If the half-life cycle does notcontinue to predominate:
The debate hasn't been settled, but the shift in 2025 is forcing even the most convinced cycle-believers to re-evaluate.
The market has split into unambiguous camps.
Many analysts believe the recent decline is merely consolidation — a sell-off before Bitcoin breaks past $100,000. Their arguments:
Supporters call the present tense phase the “center of the storm” -- a period of calm before a major breakthrough.
Others don't think the downturn is over. They refer to:
If the $90,000 support does not hold, there could be new falls or a long period in the sideways market.
The range of $90,000 to $93,000 obtainedcritical price levels. The optimists see the level as the platform for recovery, the pessimists as temporary floor exposed to macro shocks.
Above this lie multiple resistance levels associated with selling from veteran incumbents.
Bitcoin dominance—market capitalization measured as a share of total crypto—is rising again, suggesting:
Bitcoin's currency-rate correction is not happening in isolation. Global economic turmoil, technology turbulence andtight liquidity characterize investor behavior.
The entire world market hasbecome more risk-averse. Investors are reducing risk across asset classes, not just in crypto. Regulation and interest rate uncertainty contribute to changes indigital portfolios.
Nordic investors are showing increased interest in Bitcoin as a long-term value asset, particularly through ETFs andregulated channels. Technology-focused investment culture means that downturns here often lead to strategic accumulation rather than panic selling.
Institutions in the Nordic region are increasingly exploring Bitcoin exposure, and the region's new and transparent regulations provide fertile ground for long-term growth.
Bitcoin can stay between $90,000 and $110,000 as long-term investors build positions and sales decline — given no major macro shocks.
If the market finishes downscaling and institutional investments return, Bitcoin could move tonew highs. If $120,000 is breached, a new recovery wave can start.
Whether the sell-off continues, ETFs continue to lose money, or global markets weaken further, Bitcoin may test lower levels and enter long consolidation phase.
November 2025 is a critical point for Bitcoin. The 30% correction has put a spotlight on veteran holders,the 4-year cycle and the future of Bitcoin. The data show big sell-offs from experienced investors, but the overall picture is complex and not necessarily negative.
The market structure is now dominated more by institutions, and that could signal a new era in which the half-life cycle matters less and macro factors more.
Whether this periodis remembered as the “quiet before the storm” or the start of a deeper downturn depends on AVETF flows, global stability and the attitude of the veteran holders.
Right now, Bitcoin stands at a historic crossroads — with investors all over the world watching anxiously.
